Azerbaijan

2024-05-02

The shifting sands of the geopolitical landscape accentuate the strategic prominence of three principal trade corridors emanating from China: the Northern Corridor traversing Russia, the Southern Corridor via Iran, and the Middle Corridor cutting through Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan. In the context of escalating regional tensions, notably concerning Iran and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, Israel’s strategic calculus may increasingly favor the augmentation of the Middle Corridor. Known as the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), the Middle Corridor emerges as a burgeoning conduit linking China with Europe via the heartlands of Central Asia and the Caucasus. This route threads through Kazakhstan, skips across the Caspian Sea, wends through Azerbaijan and Georgia, and finally unfurls into Eastern Europe. It heralds a direct and efficient alternative, circumventing the geopolitical quagmires associated with traversing Russia to the north and navigating through less stable southern terrains. As this corridor ascends in significance, it is lauded for providing a swifter, safer, and more reliable bridge between the colossal markets of Asia and Europe, leveraging Central Asia's strategic geographical and economic positioning. The dominion Russia exercises over the Northern Corridor is a paradoxical blessing. While it presents a stable passage amidst regional turmoil, underscores its potential to manipulate critical infrastructures for geopolitical ends. This capability to sway global trade dynamics bestows formidable power upon Russia, mirroring Iran’s sway over crucial maritime conduits in the Southern Corridor. Both powers have demonstrated their capacity to virtually hold the global economy to ransom, threatening or actualizing disruptions in these vital channels, whether they pertain to energy supplies or broader trade routes. Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a meeting with Chairman of the Board of the Eurasian Economic Commission (EEC) Bakytzhan Sagintayev at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia March 19, 2024. (credit: Sputnik/Sergei Bobylev/Kremlin via REUTERS) The southern trajectory weaves through territories under Russian influence and Iran - a route distinctly misaligned with Israel’s strategic interests. Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, Central Asian nations, fall significantly under Russia’s sway, particularly regarding their transport and economic infrastructures. This influence pervades the major rail and road corridors that stitch these countries into the broader tapestry of routes connecting China to Europe. These arteries, vital for the transit of goods, remain under Russian dominion, either directly or through layers of economic and political leverage. In 2023, the rail freight volume pulsing between China and Europe burgeoned to a notable 674,000 TEU (twenty-foot equivalent units), underscoring the sheer volume and the critical economic stakes of these routes. The dependency on pathways meandering through Russian-controlled areas injects a vein of strategic vulnerability; geopolitical frictions involving Russia could precipitate disruptions in these essential supply chains, throttling the robust flow of commerce between . The Southern Corridor unfurls as an alternate vein for merchandise flowing from China to Europe, coursing through Iran. This passage grants Tehran potential choke points to disrupt these supply lines or to siphon revenue through transit fees. Such maneuvers would augment Tehran’s coffers and amplify its geopolitical clout by commandeering another crucial commercial artery. Iran’s strategies to dominate energy conduits through the are already well-charted, with aspirations to broaden its influence over additional pivotal supply chains.For Israel, Iran’s grip over a crucial segment of the global trade network is especially disconcerting. It poses a palpable threat to the stability of international commerce and escalates regional tensions, standing in stark opposition to Israeli interests that champion secure and seamless global trade flows. Endorsing the Northern Corridor, which depends considerably on Russian goodwill, might seem a less perilous option for Israel compared to the latent threats from a hostile Iran, yet it is far from ideal. This choice may be partly swayed by the burgeoning partnerships and observed stability along the Middle Corridor through Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, offering a more secure alternative that diminishes reliance on any pathway monopolized by potential foes. The alliance between Israel and Kazakhstan exemplifies a paradigm of sustained, high-level cooperation and mutual respect that has flourished over several decades. Formalized soon after Kazakhstan declared its independence in 1991, this relationship has been fortified through a succession of state visits and strategic accords. A landmark in these evolving ties was Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s visit to Astana in December 2016, which highlighted the broad cooperation spanning security, technology, and agriculture. This visit also provided a platform to articulate Israel’s perspectives on significant geopolitical issues and bolster connections with a pivotal Central Asian nation. Additionally, both countries consistently participate in dialogues across various international forums, with Kazakhstan adopting a balanced and constructive stance on Middle Eastern affairs, advocating peaceful resolutions to regional conflicts. These interactions do not merely cement bilateral relationships; they also advance broader regional and international stability. Kazakhstan’s recent diplomatic maneuvers suggest a nuanced shift away from Russian dominion, indicative of a gradual cooling in relations with Moscow. This pivot includes an expanded outreach towards Western nations. This development harbors significant implications for countries like Israel, which are in pursuit of stable and reliable trade routes free from the overbearing influence of geopolitically conflicted states. Despite Kazakhstan’s affiliations with the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), which remains under Russian influence, its burgeoning relations with Western powers enhance the viability of the Middle Corridor as a secure trade conduit for Israel. This strategic alignment safeguards Israel’s economic ventures and bolsters its geopolitical stature by fostering ties with nations increasingly oriented towards the West. Simultaneously, Israel and Azerbaijan’s strategic partnership, particularly robust within the realms of defense and energy, has seen considerable deepening. The recent inauguration of Azerbaijan’s embassy in Tel Aviv is a testament to this. This gesture reciprocates Israel’s established diplomatic presence in Baku and heralds a new chapter of overt diplomatic engagements between the two states. Their alliance is further cemented by significant defense collaborations, with Azerbaijan procuring advanced military hardware from Israel, including sophisticated air defense systems. This military alliance proved crucial during Azerbaijan’s conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh, underscoring the strategic depth of their partnership. Additionally, Israel’s substantial oil imports from Azerbaijan considerably enhance its energy security. President Ilham Aliyev's support for Azerbaijan’s Jewish community, exemplified through initiatives like synagogue and cultural center constructions, underscores shared values of diversity and tolerance, further enriching the bilateral relationship. Israel stands to gain immensely from the Middle Corridor, which traverses Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan - nations geopolitically amicable and aligned with Israeli interests. This route holds strategic importance as it does not fortify any direct adversaries, thus mitigating the risk of tensions and conflicts that could disrupt supply chains. Contrasting with the Northern and Southern Corridors, which fall under the sway of Russia and Iran, respectively, the Middle Corridor offers a more secure alternative, skirting potential geopolitical hot spots. This delineation of trade paths underscores a critical recalibration of Israel’s strategic engagements, ensuring that its commerce and political alliances remain resilient against the backdrop of a dynamically evolving global stage. Catherine Perez Shakdam is the executive director, and Dr. Stepan Stepanenko is the director of research at the Forum for Foreign Relations. ...قراءة المزيد

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2024-04-21

Narges Mohammadi, an Iranian human rights activist and Nobel Peace Prize laureate, warned that the Islamic regime in Iran was waging an "all-out war" in a voice recording that she managed to send from within Tehran's Evin Prison on Sunday. "For years, we have witnessed many women who have endured assault, abuse, and beatings by government agents," Mohammadi said in a message published on her Instagram page to mark her birthday. "However, today, the Islamic Republic, not from a position of strength but out of desperation, has dragged a full-scale war against all women to every street in Iran." "We women in this relentless war will either stop this war by losing our lives, or the people of Iran and the world will come to our aid so that we can stop this war through living and peace and force the misogynistic regime to retreat," she said. Mohammadi called on Iranians from all classes and all walks of life, both inside and outside Iran, to protest the "war, aggression, rape, and beating of women." People participate in a protest against the Islamic regime of Iran and the death of Mahsa Amini in New York City, New York, U.S., September 27, 2022. (credit: REUTERS/STEPHANIE KEITH) "I ask the world and the worlds to stop this relentless barbaric war, which is a terrible and disgusting manifestation of gender apartheid," added the activist. "O proud women of Iran, the cruel despotic government thought that it would scare us and force us to retreat by assaulting, violating, and insulting the dignity of women, but you, you nameless and anonymous women from Sistan and Baluchistan to Kurdistan and from Khuzestan to Azerbaijan and Tehran and everywhere in Iran did not sit back, but you pushed the government back," stressed Mohammadi. "We women of resistance live in every moment of our lives in every place under the boots of tyranny in prison and on the street," said the Nobel Peace Prize laureate, urging Iranian women not to "underestimate your stories. "These narratives will disgrace the misogynist government and knock it down," said Mohammadi, calling on women to send their stories of "arrest, assault, harassment, humiliation, beating and rape" to her Instagram page. "Long live the resistance. Long live freedom. Long live the indomitable ," she concluded. Mohammadi, who has worked as a journalist and a human rights activist, has been arrested several times and has been in prison since 2021. From prison, she has published several statements and reports about human rights violations committed by the Khamenei regime.  Mohammadi said that she had lost phone access for the past five months and was sending out the new message through Sepideh Gholian, another Iranian activist and journalist. In her recorded message, Mohammadi noted that Dina Ghalibaf, a journalist and student at Tehran's Beheshti University, had been jailed at Evin Prison on Sunday and had bruises on her. Ghalibaf was arrested from her home on Tuesday after posting on X that she had been detained and sexually assaulted by "Morality Police" at the Sadeghiyeh metro station in Tehran earlier in the week. Ghalibaf said the Morality Police officers violently detained her and tased her while she was trying to access the metro in a post on Monday. She added that one of the officers made insulting comments about Mahsa Amini and women in general. On Tuesday, she was taken from her home to an unknown location. Ghalibaf's X account has since been suspended. The Iranian Teachers Union reported on her arrest as well. The Evin Prison was placed under US sanctions in 2018 for "ordering, controlling, or otherwise directing, the commission of serious human rights abuses against persons in Iran or Iranian citizens or residents, or the family members of the foregoing." According to the statement by the US Treasury at the time, prisoners are subject to brutal tactics such as sexual assault, physical assaults, and electric shock. Additionally, on Sunday, Saman Yasin, a Kurdish rapper who was arrested during the Woman, Life, Freedom protests in 2022, was sentenced to five years of "exile" in the city of Kerman. Yasin had originally been sentenced to death, but Iran's Supreme Court overturned the ruling, according to Yasin's lawyer. The punishment of exile involves sending a person to an isolated location where they must remain and periodically report to local authorities. The locations are usually impoverished and subject to an intensive presence of security forces. The Islamic regime in Iran has begun intensifying its crackdown on hijab restrictions in several cities in the past few weeks, with violent arrests reported across the country by opposition groups and human rights agencies. The intensified assault on women across Iran comes after the regime announced the "Nour Project." The project, aimed at "dealing with anomalies," has involved a heavy presence of the "Morality Police" in several cities since this past weekend. The Islamic regime in Iran has been gradually intensifying enforcement of hijab laws since they were somewhat relaxed in light of nationwide protests that swept Iran after Mahsa Amini, a Kurdish-Iranian woman, was killed by "Morality Police" in Tehran. Amini’s death sparked intense nationwide demonstrations last September, commonly referred to as the “Woman, Life, Liberty” (“Jin, Jiyan, Azadî” in Kurdish) protests, which continued in full strength for months on end. ...قراءة المزيد

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2024-04-19

Armenia has agreed to return to Azerbaijan four villages situated on theirshared border, spokesperson Aykhan Hajizada said on Friday. Hajizada posted on X that the four villages had been held by Armenia since the early 1990s and their return was a "long-awaited historic event." 's Foreign Ministry said in a statement that the two countries had reached a preliminary agreement on four sections of their disputed border. has said the return of the villages is a necessary precondition for a peace deal to end more than three decades of conflict between the two countries, which were both part of the Soviet Union. Friday's agreement, at a meeting chaired by deputy prime ministers of both countries, was the clearest sign yet of progress between the two sides. After two major wars between them, momentum shifted dramatically in favor of Azerbaijan last September when its forces staged a lightning offensive to regain control of the Nagorno-Karabakh region, where ethnic Armenians had enjoyed de facto independence since the mid-1990s. Armenia as well as international observers have Azerbaijan of carrying out an ethnic cleansing campaign in the ethnic-Armenian territories captured in September. Azerbaijan says it has pledged to ensure all residents’ safety and security, regardless of national or ethnic origin, and that it has not forced ethnic Armenians to leave Karabakh, though there has been a since the territory changed hands. In 2021, Armenia brought a case against Azerbaijan at the International Criminal Court (ICJ) accusing Azerbaijan of glorifying racism against Armenians, allowing hate speech against Armenians and destroying Armenian cultural sites - all accusations that Baku denies.Azerbaijan subsequently filed a claim against Armenia, accusing it of discrimination and ethnic cleansing against Azeris. Jerusalem Post Staff contributed to this report. ...قراءة المزيد

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2024-04-12

In recent days, for global domination is increasingly apparent.  Following the recent Israeli attack on the Iranian Consulate in Damascus, which eliminated senior members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the mullahs in Tehran are going after the Hashemite regime in Jordan, seeking to have its government toppled and replaced with a pro-Hamas leadership.  There are reports that Iranian weapons are flooding into the West Bank, which Iran hopes will unite with a new Hamas-led government in Jordan and overthrow the entire PLO-led Palestinian Authority (PA), creating a united Hamas front against Israel. According to a recent MEMRI report, Iran seeks to topple the Hashemites and ultimately also the PA so that they can attack Israel from the east as the Jewish state remains occupied dealing with Iranian proxies in Syria, Lebanon, and Gaza: “The political aim of this plan is to thwart the Saudi-American project of normalization with Israel.”  This would lead to Saudi Arabia never making peace with Israel alongside a number of other moderate Sunni Arab countries. It also includes efforts by Iran to make amends with Azerbaijan, while weakening the Sisi government in Egypt, another ally of Israel in the region. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman receives U.S. President Joe Biden at Al Salman Palace upon his arrival in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, July 15, 2022. (credit: BANDAR ALGALOUD/COURTESY OF SAUDI ROYAL COURT/REUTERS) The MEMRI report noted: “The regime in Iran has never concealed its aim and aspirations: to have the Iranian Islamic Revolution take over the region, to bring down the West-facing moderate Arab Sunni regimes by exporting the revolution and to eliminate Israel, the ‘Little Satan’ and the cancerous growth, and to liberate Jerusalem from it.  To achieve this, the Iranian regime uses its array of resistance axis militias from Yemen to Lebanon and from Iraq to Azerbaijan, as an effective military arm for establishing its messianic vision.” Last March, the foreign ministers of Iran and Azerbaijan met at the Organization of Islamic Conference, where they agreed on the reopening of the Azerbaijani Embassy in Tehran after an Iranian court sentenced the terrorist who attacked the Azerbaijani Embassy on International Holocaust Memorial Day, killing a security guard, to death. Why would Iran agree to execute this person in order to restore ties with Azerbaijan, given that there is a great chance that Iran orchestrated this terror attack? The answer to this question is that the Iranians are greatly disturbed that Armenia is getting closer to the US and France after the Armenians decided it was in their best interest to distance themselves from the Putin government, under heavy international sanctions for its war in Ukraine.  Examples of this include Armenia’s intention to apply for membership in the European Union – the access process would require Armenia to scrap its visa-free regime with Iran and re-orient all of its foreign policy in the direction that Brussels requires. The Iranians, greatly disturbed by Armenia’s rapprochement with the West, have told the Armenians not to cozy up to “extra-regional parties.” Due to Armenia’s increased ties with the US and France, as well as their stated intention to join the European Union, the Iranians are now trying to patch up their relationship with Baku, Armenia’s main foe, who despite being an ally of NATO will likely never be a member of the European Union.  This led to the signing of an agreement to construct the Aras Corridor, connecting the Azerbaijani Nachshivan Province to mainland Azerbaijan via Iranian territory. Azerbaijan had earlier sought to build the Zangezur Corridor, which would do the same thing via Armenian territory, but the Iranians had opposed it, as it would block Iranian-Armenian trade. Nevertheless, the Iranians seek to compensate the Azerbaijanis with the Aras Corridor, as they know it is very important for them that Nachshivan Province be connected to the rest of their country. Although it is highly doubtful that this move will cause the Azerbaijanis to abandon their close friendship with Israel, the Iranians are hopeful that, at the very least, they can placate the Azerbaijanis enough so that they won’t be a hostile front as Iran prepares for a regional war against the Jewish state.  After all, 40% of Iranians are of Azerbaijani origin and are known for protesting against the regime in recent years. They are furious that they have been deprived of the right to study in their mother tongue and to give their children Turkic names.  They wish to secede from Iran and create an independent South Azerbaijan. The last thing that Iran wants is to deal with massive anti-regime protests by Azerbaijanis in Iran and hostile actions by the state of Azerbaijan, while Tehran fights against the Jewish state on all fronts.  Indeed, the Iranians always see Azerbaijan as their weak link, a neighboring country that Israeli intelligence can utilize to smuggle nuclear documents out of Iran.  With so many fronts, the Iranians cannot afford another, so they are trying to pick their battles, even though they despise the government in Baku with great passion, as they are secular Shi’ites who are among Israel’s best friends. For this reason, the Iranians seek to make amends with Azerbaijan, but whether the Azerbaijanis will fall for their charade is another question.  Thus, even though they may agree to build the Aras Corridor and reopen their embassy in Tehran, they will always remain wary of a country that attacked not only their embassy in Tehran but also their embassy in London, as well as threatening the Israeli Embassy in Baku.  The Azerbaijanis will never let down their guard, they too were part of the Safavid Empire and can play chess every bit as well as the Iranian mullahs.  The writer is a prominent Middle East scholar and commentator. ...قراءة المزيد

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2024-04-09

An unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) was shot down last Saturday by . The UAV was later revealed as an Elbit Systems Hermes 900 Kochav, valued at around $10 million.  The Hermes 900 is Elbit's largest drone and has been sold to the , Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, and according to foreign reports, Azerbaijan. The UAV is a relatively large and expensive drone capable of staying in the air for approximately 30 straight hours.Hermes 900 UAV (credit: ELBIT SYSTEMS) Following the downing of the UAV, the IDF struck deep in Lebanon, on the border with Syria. Missiles were fired in the next morning towards the Golan Heights, and in the afternoon towards Kibbutz Manara and Moshav Margaliot. Proceeding this, about a month and a half ago, the IDF announced that an Israeli Air Force UAV was shot down by Hezbollah in Lebanese territory. In response, the IDF struck targets of the terrorist organization in the Baalbek area in Lebanon for the first time since the Second Lebanon War. Baalbek is approximately 100 km. north of the border and is the northernmost target that the IDF has struck since the beginning of the war. ...قراءة المزيد

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2024-04-06

In recent days, Iran’s Ambassador to Azerbaijan, Abbas Mousavi, was compelled to resign after Baku TV’s female presenter Sevinc Gülmammadov interviewed him while not wearing a hijab. In Iran, many supporters of the regime were outraged that a female journalist would conduct an interview inside  the Iranian Embassy without wearing a hijab and voiced their disdain by punishing Mousavi. However, their criticism of Gulmammadova for not wearing a hijab just highlights how much the Iranian regime oppresses women in general and female journalists in particular. Female journalists should never be compelled to wear the hijab, especially when they conducting an interview in the center of Baku and not in Iran. The fact that the interview was conducted inside  the Iranian Embassy, which is under the sovereignty of the , makes no difference. Nobel Prize winning human rights lawyer, Shirin Ebadi, claimed that the law of compulsory hijab violates Iran’s Constitution. Article 23 of the Iranian Constitution states: “The investigation of the beliefs of persons is forbidden and no one may be molested or prosecuted for holding a belief.” Alireza Asgari wrote in an article titled “Compulsory Hijab in Iran: Women’s Choice or a State Demand?” “One of the implications of such an article is that women should be free to choose their own religion, beliefs, and opinions and be able to practice (or not) certain religious acts including the wearing (or not) of the Islamic Hijab or any other type of dress code. Whereas in the constitution people are granted the right to choose their religion and consequently religious practices, the Islamic Penal Code which legislates in favor of compulsory Hijab violates the right of women to freedom of religion and religious practices .” In the past, Gülmammadova has interviewed ambassadors from the UAE and Pakistan, both conservative Muslim countries, without encountering criticism for the way she dresses. However, the interview with Mousavi, conducted with portraits of Iran’s supreme leaders and the late military commander Qasem Soleimani in the background, was deemed by some supporters of the regime as a violation of diplomatic protocols and  blatant disrespect to Iranian officials. A WOMAN walks past an Iranian flag painted on a wall in a street in Tehran earlier this week. (credit: Atta Kenare/AFP via Getty Images) Anyone who understands would not take it this way. If one goes to Baku, one will find that most women do not wear the hijab unless they enter the Heydar Aliyev Mosque or another Muslim place of worship. Female journalists especially tend to don Western attire in Baku, always preferring the latest Parisian fashions to traditional Islamic attire. In fact, I would even say that Azerbaijani professional women like to compete with the Europeans regarding who can wear the most fashionable Western professional clothing. For them, donning a hijab while doing important professional work is just out of place. OF COURSE, Iran is not a country that is known to respect the human rights of journalists, especially female journalists. According to the Committee to Protect Journalists, last month, “security forces raided the newsroom of the privately owned multimedia economic news website FardayeEghtesad in Argentina Square in the capital, Tehran, detained all 30 staff inside the building, searched the newsroom and confiscated everyone’s cellphones and other electronic devices, such as laptops. Five journalists were detained in the newsroom for four days.” Pouria Zeraati, an Iranian journalist and TV presenter at Iran International, was stabbed in front of his home in London recently. The channel’s spokesman, Adam Baillie, reported the journalist was the victim of “serious death threats” and that Zeraati was “obviously shaken up but making a good recovery.” Iran International is a UK-based channel providing “a fair and balanced view of what happens inside Iran.” Niloofar Hamedi, 31, and Elaheh Mohammadi, 36, two Iranian female journalists who were arrested for their coverage of the Mahsa Amini protests, were also charged with not wearing the hijab after they were released from Evin Prison on bail. Following their arrest, Masih Alinejad, an Iranian journalist living in exile in the US, told The Guardian: “Compulsory hijab is the main pillar of this gender apartheid regime. That’s why the authorities in Iran want to punish these two women who resisted forced veiling and practiced their civil disobedience. In the eyes of Islamic Republic officials they are criminals, but in the eyes of millions of Iranian women, they are our heroes.” As Iran International noted, “A career diplomat, Mousavi served as spokesman for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs from 2019 to 2020 – most notably during the time of then-Foreign Minister Javad Zarif. Mousavi was appointed as Iran’s ambassador to Azerbaijan in August 2020. Images and video clips of Baku TV’s female presenter Sevinc Gülmammadova interviewing the now-dismissed Ambassador had spread rapidly across social media, sparking outrage among regime supporters who condemned her dress code as offensive.” However, Iran International noted that all women in Iran suffer from the country’s draconian hijab law. They added: “One of the last victims of the Iranian regime’s repressive hijab policy was Armita Geravand. The 16-year-old girl passed away on October 28, 2023, after spending approximately a month in a coma due to brain damage inflicted during a violent altercation with the regime’s hijab enforcers.” For this reason, everyone must praise Sevinc Gülmammadova for taking a brave stance against Iran’s compulsory hijab laws by refusing to placate the mullahs in the center of Baku. If Tehran still wants to have an embassy in Azerbaijan, they must learn to treat Azerbaijani female journalists and the Azerbaijani open society with respect and dignity, even if they refuse to don a hijab. If not, their embassy has no place in Baku’s vibrant landscape.  In a broader look, the case of Sevinc Gülmammadova and the ambassador reflects the Iranian hegemonic attitude to other countries’ culture, which is the same as the Iranian attitude to other countries’ security and stability as demonstrated in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, and Gaza. The writer is a prominent Middle East scholar and commentator. ...قراءة المزيد

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2024-03-20

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi spoke with Russian President this week and called for closer ties between Tehran and Moscow. The countries already have warm ties, and Iran has supplied Russia with drones that it has used in deadly attacks in Ukraine. The call between Raisi and Putin took place after Putin won re-election in Russia. The Iranian regime leader praised the Russian regime leader for his re-election in an election that was never in doubt. Fars News noted that the Iranian leader expressed “hope that his [Putin’s] new term would provide a suitable ground for the promotion of relations between Tehran and Moscow.” The Iranian leader then went on to “highlight the significance of joint bids in regional organizations like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and BRICS, as well as ongoing projects such as the Rasht-Astara railway connecting two Iranian and Russian cities to enhance economic ties.” Iran and Russia are seeking a new world order to confront the West and create a multi-polar world after decades of US hegemony in the wake of the Cold War. Iran has joined groups like BRICS and the SCO to work more closely with Russia and China. The Iranian leader also discussed Armenia and Azerbaijan with the Russian leader. The Iranian said he wants to maintain “regional stability” and discussed Iran’s strategic interests. “Tehran and Moscow enjoy common interests in economic, military, and security affairs as well as friendly relationships and pursue common policies on regional and international developments, especially when taking stances in the face of the United States’ unilateral and interventionist strategies,” Fars News noted. A drone is seen during a military exercise in an undisclosed location in Iran, in this handout image obtained on October 4, 2023 (credit: IRANIAN ARMY/WANA (WEST ASIA NEWS AGENCY) VIA REUTERS) The conversation is essential and reflects the deepening ties between Russia and Iran. Iran and Russia are also working on other issues that may have a broader effect in the Middle East. For instance, Iran is developing longer-range and more precise missiles. Iran’s nuclear program is also continuing. In addition to the drone program, there is increased evidence of wider Iranian drone exports. Iran recently said it has created an indigenous local production line for In addition, the Shahed 136 that Iran provides to Russia has also become a staple now of Russia’s war effort and has its own production line that enables many more of these drones to be built. The Ukraine war is absorbing large amounts of munitions, and thousands of drones are part of this new method of war. Iran is riding a wage of success in this regard. Iran can then use this success in ties with Russia to back its proxies in the region and threaten Israel. Russia and Iran both have close ties with Hamas.  ...قراءة المزيد

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2024-03-19

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said that Armenia may face a war with Azerbaijan if it does not compromise with Baku on returning some strategic Azerbaijani territories that Armenia has controlled since the early 1990s. Pashinyan was speaking during a Monday meeting with residents of border areas in northern Armenia's Tavush region, close to a string of deserted Azerbaijani villages that Yerevan has controlled since the opening phases of the countries' three-decade-long conflict in the early 1990s. TASS quoted Pashinyan as saying in a video of the meeting circulated by his government: "Now we can leave here, let’s go and tell [Azerbaijan] that no, we are not going to do anything. This means that at the end of the week a war will begin." Pashinyan has repeatedly signaled in recent weeks that he is willing to return the villages to Azerbaijan, which are important for Yerevan, as they control its main road northwards to the border with Georgia. Azerbaijan has said that the return of its lands is a necessary precondition for a peace deal to end three decades of conflict over the region of Nagorno-Karabakh, which Azerbaijan retook in September.ARMENIAN SOLDIERS ride in the back of a truck in the breakaway region of Nagorno Karabakh last week. The Caucasus region experienced several rounds of conflict after the collapse of the Soviet Union, and the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia is one of the most notable disputes. (credit: VAHRAM BAGHDASARYAN/REUTERS) The two sides have said they want to sign a formal peace treaty, but talks have become bogged down in issues including demarcation of the countries' 1000km (620 mile) border, which is closed and heavily militarized. Both Armenia and Azerbaijan continue to occupy lands that are internationally recognized as part of the other's territory. ...قراءة المزيد

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2024-02-25

Narges Mohammadi, an Iranian human rights activist and Nobel Peace Prize laureate, called on Iranians to boycott the in Iran in a post on Saturday. "The Islamic Republic deserves national sanctions and global condemnation. Sanctioning elections is not only a political necessity but also a moral duty," wrote Mohammadi. "Sanctioning elections under a despotic religious regime is not just a political move but also a moral obligation for freedom-loving and justice-seeking Iranians. The Islamic Republic, with its ruthless and brutal suppression, the killing of young people on the streets, the executions, and the imprisonment and torture of men and women, deserves national sanctions and global condemnation," added Mohammadi. "I, alongside the informed and proud people from all over Iran, from Sistan and Baluchestan to Kurdistan, from Khuzestan to Azerbaijan, will stand to declare the illegitimacy of the Islamic Republic and the divide within the oppressive regime and its people through the sanctioning of sham elections." Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi speaks during a parliament meeting in Tehran, Iran, January 22, 2023. (credit: MAJID ASGARIPOUR/WANA (WEST ASIA NEWS AGENCY) VIA REUTERS) Mohammadi, who has worked as a journalist and a human rights activist, has been arrested several times and has been in prison since 2021. From prison, she has published several statements and reports about human rights violations committed by the Khamenei regime. On Friday, March 1, elections for the Majlis (parliament) and the Assembly of Experts will be held in Iran. The Assembly of Experts is the body in Iran that is tasked with appointing or dismissing the Supreme Leader of Iran, although the real extent of their power is uncertain and somewhat limited. The candidates for both the Majlis and the Assembly of Experts are vetted by the Guardian Council, a council of 12 jurists half of whom are appointed by the supreme leader and half of whom are nominated by the Supreme Judicial Council and appointed by the Majlis. The council is also tasked with vetting legislation passed by the Majlis. The Iranian Majlis consists of 290 seats, including one seat for a Zoroastrian representative, one seat for a Jewish representative, one seat representing the Assyrian and Chaldean Christians, one seat for Armenian Christians in northern Iran, and one seat for Armenian Christians in southern Iran. Iran is split into 207 electoral districts, with some of the larger districts having multiple representatives. Former president Hassan Rouhani applied to run in the elections for the Assembly of Experts this year but his request by the Guardian Council. Rouhani has sent three letters to the council demanding that the council publish the reasons for his disqualification, but all three have remained unanswered. Several polls conducted in recent weeks have shown a disinterest or opposition to the elections in Iran. The Iranian newspaper Vatan Emrooz reported last week that 52% of Iranians did not know when elections were going to be held and that another poll by the Iranian Students Polling Agency (ISPA) had found that only 36% of Iranians knew when election day was. Another poll cited by several Iranian news agencies including ISNA and Khabar Online found that only about 30% of Iranians planned to vote in the upcoming elections, with participation in Tehran expected to be as low as 15%. Khabar Online deleted the poll after posting it, saying that it had been called and ordered to take the poll down as it was "against the law." The Netherlands-based group found that only 15% of Iranians plan to vote in the upcoming elections and 38% of Iranians were unaware of when the elections were being held. The poll additionally found that 39% of those who voted in the parliamentary elections in 2019 do not intend to vote in the upcoming elections. The GAMAAN poll also found that if a referendum were to be held in Iran today with the question "Islamic Republic: Yes or No?" about 75% would vote "no," 16% would vote "yes," and about 9% were unsure. When asked what their preferred method of change is, one-third of respondents said protests were more effective, while 13% said elections were better, and another third said neither method was effective. The poll also asked Iranians about the Israel-Hamas conflict, with 35% of Iranians blaming Hamas for starting the conflict, 20% blaming Israel, and 31% blaming both parties. In recent comments to members of the reformist Islamic Iran Solidarity Party, former Iranian president Mohammad Khatami stressed that Iran is "very far from free, participatory and competitive elections," according to the Jamaran news site. Khatami expressed hopes that "the grievances, which are increasing day by day, will be taken seriously and will provide a basis for our society to witness free elections in the future." Reformist politician Mostafa Tajzadeh, who is imprisoned in the Evin Prison in Tehran, published a letter in the past week saying that Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei had "made elections meaningless and made elected institutions ineffective," according to Radio Farda. "Holding a referendum and at least free elections requires political foresight and moral courage, which the leader does not seem to have much use for," added Tajzadeh, calling on reformists to boycott the elections. The imprisoned politician added that Khamenei was ignoring the "disastrous realities of Iran" and that most Iranians have decided to ignore Khamenei in turn. The apparent lack of interest in the upcoming elections has prompted Iranian leaders to increase their calls for citizens to vote in the elections. Khamenei recently urged Iranians to take part in the elections, accusing the US and Israel, which he refers to as the "Arrogant Front," or being against the elections. "When America opposes the Islamic Republic system, it actually opposes the elections, it opposes the participation of the people, it opposes the coming of the people to the polls, it opposes the excitement and participation of the majority of the people in the elections," said . "They don't say it explicitly, but they try to keep people away from the elections, discourage them, and disappoint them in various ways. There are many methods in this field." "Everyone should participate in the elections," added Khamenei. "Elections are the main pillar of the Islamic Republic. The way to reform the country is elections. Those who are looking to fix the problems should turn to the elections. The right way is to vote." Hossein Salami, commander in chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) called for participation in the elections, saying "In our society, all the basic and necessary institutions and elements of the country are formed based on democratic structures, and the high participation of the people in the elections indicates the existence of political vitality in the country." ...قراءة المزيد

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2024-02-22

Israel is now leading the list of countries importing oil from Azerbaijan – despite . Azerbaijan published its oil export data for January 2024 during the Security Conference in Munich on Feb 16-18 – where Israeli President Isaac Herzog met with the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev.  The data shows that Israel ranks first in the table of countries that export oil from the friendly Shiite country, and the export to Israel was 523.5 thousand tons with a value of about 297 million dollars – a figure significantly higher than other countries importing oil from Azerbaijan, such as Thailand, Italy, and others. Aliyev’s office in Azerbaijan’s capital of Baku issued a statement regarding the meeting between him and his Israeli counterpart, in which the two discussed various fields of – such as commercial, economic, cultural, and humanitarian ties. Azerbaijan’s reports indicate that despite the international pressure exerted against Azerbaijan amid the war in Gaza due to its close relations with Israel, President Aliyev continues his policy of fostering relations between the countries and continues to stand by the local Jewish community. Israeli officials and Jewish leaders who participated in the Security Conference expressed concern about the latest report by the Diaspora Ministry on the state of antisemitism in the world, which indicated a very alarming increase in the rates of attacks and overt antisemitism – even in countries considered friendly to Israel, such as Armenia. " is largely influenced by the relations between Israel and Azerbaijan and the Israeli defense exports to it,” the Diaspora Ministry report said.  “These relations arouse great anger in the Armenian society against the background of the intensification of the between (Armenia and Azerbaijan). However, the fact that the Armenians chose to focus specifically on Israel and not necessarily on other countries that also support them Azerbaijan shows that the antisemitic attitudes in Armenia are much deeper and may even be influenced by external factors,” the report explains. ...قراءة المزيد

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2024-02-20

On Monday, February 19, a drone carrying explosives struck a field near Arbel in northern Israel. This is around 30 kilometers from the Lebanon border, which meant the unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) had flown for some distance inside Israeli airspace. Initial reports didn’t provide full details on where the drone had come from, and the IDF said initially that the circumstances of the incident were being investigated. Later in the day, on Sidon in Lebanon. There have been numerous drone attacks on Israel by Hezbollah since the Iranian-backed terrorist group began attacks on Israel on October 8. Hezbollah decided, with Iranian prodding, to join the Hamas attack that happened on October 7. Hezbollah has a different type of arsenal than Hamas. First of all, it has more rockets. It also has a plethora of anti-tank guided missiles (ATGMs), and it has thousands of drones of different types. Hamas, by comparison, did not have nearly as many drones or ATGMs. Hezbollah is also investing in more precision weapons. The Alma Center for Research and Education, which focuses on security threats in the north, described Hezbollah’s attempts at increased precision on February 18, saying: “The upgrade to precision capability also reached some of Hezbollah’s short-range rockets: the Grads with a diameter of 122 mm, the Fajr-Khaibar missiles, and the missile versions of the Fateh 110s in Hezbollah’s possession. It is highly likely that an increasing number of Hezbollah’s short-range Grad rockets and other rockets have become precise guided weapons.” Hezbollah is advancing into the world of precision, as a kind of 'substitute for air force.'It is highly likely that an increasing number of Hezbollah's short-range Grad rockets and other rockets have become precise guided weapons. We estimate that Hezbollah has dozens of… Along with the precision threat, the drone threat has also increased. as a central aspect of the future of warfare on battlefields from Iraq to Ukraine and in conflicts between countries such as Armenia and Azerbaijan. Drones are also increasingly used by more countries; for instance, Turkey uses a plethora of drones, and Iran has exported drones around the Middle East. A CROWD in Tehran watches an address, on the screen by Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, in November. Hezbollah is virtually a state within a state, sucking the lifeblood out of Lebanon at the instigation of Iran, says the writer. (credit: WEST ASIA NEWS AGENCY/REUTERS) Iran’s drone export has become so extensive that the drones being sent to Iran’s proxies look a lot like the method once used by the Soviets to export their AK-47s as a symbol of their role on the global stage. What that means is that the drone is now the new tool of the Iranian proxies. For instance, in Syria have used drones to attack US forces and also to target Israel since 2018. In Iraq, the Iranian-backed group Kataib Hezbollah used a drone to attack US forces in Jordan, killing three Americans on January 27. In addition, Iran has moved drones to Yemen. The Shahed 136 was first sent to Yemen in 2020 before being exported to Russia to help Russia’s war in Ukraine in 2022. The drone incident in northern Israel spotlights the growing role of these types of UAVs. Some Iranian drones, like the delta-wing design Shahed 136 are what are known as “loitering munitions,” meaning they explode on impact. These types of drones, when they have communications with their base, can “loiter” over a target. The Iranian Shahed likely does not “loiter.” Rather, it flies a one-way mission like a cruise missile. This type of drone threat is different than the surveillance drone threat or the one posed by smaller quadcopters that have been converted to carry weapons. Quadcopters can often buzz around looking for targets. This can wreak havoc because they can go in any direction they want, posing a potential threat to a wider area. As such, drones are more “bang for the buck” because with one drone, a terror group can threaten a large area. With thousands of drones, like Hezbollah is believed to have, the threat increases exponentially. Think of drones like pieces on a chessboard. While one might know all the pieces, the overall permutations of what can be done with them are endless.  The Iranian-backed drone threat is its own kind of threat. What that means is that Hezbollah, for instance, has built small airstrips for drones. For instance, Hezbollah launched drones at Israel on January 25, striking near Kfar Blum in northern Israel. Israel carried out airstrikes on an airstrip in Kilat Jaber on the same day. The drone threat has slowly emerged in recent years. Iran began exporting drones to places like Syria, Yemen, and Lebanon and then sent them to proxies in Iraq. Hezbollah has been using drones for more than a decade. However, the types of drones have also changed over the years. Iran has moved from the types of drones that looked like “remotely piloted aircraft,” basically meaning large model planes that have radio control, to different types of drones that come from various “families” of drones built by large Iranian firms. The Shahed 136, for instance, has now become a type of mass-produced drone. The move from having a handful of drones that can conduct surveillance to thousands of armed drones is what has shifted the role of this weapon system into the hands of groups like Hezbollah. Nevertheless, there is some reason for optimism. Drones can conduct precision attacks and can harass large areas, but so far, they have not been shown to win wars. On the Ukrainian frontline, for instance, drones are used for a plethora of tasks, from attacking infantry and armored vehicles to helping artillery find targets. But they haven’t won the war for Russia or Ukraine. Similarly, Hezbollah’s drone army is not equivalent to the proverbial “rook” or “queen” on the chessboard discussed above. The drones are still mid-rank in terms of their threat, and Iran’s proxies have not perfected drone swarms or other methods of use for them.  ...قراءة المزيد

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2024-02-16

Israel carried out covert attacks on two major gas pipelines inside Iran this week, the New York Times reported on Friday, citing two Western officials and a military strategist affiliated with Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps.  “This shows that the covert networks operating in Iran have expanded their target list and advanced beyond just military and nuclear sites,” said Shahin Modarres, a Rome-based security analyst focused on the Middle East. “It’s a major challenge and reputation blow for Iran’s intelligence and security agencies.” The sabotage targeted several points along two main gas pipelines in the provinces of Fars and Chahar Mahal Bakhtiari, while the disruption in service stretched to homes and facilities in at least five provinces across the country. One of the pipelines, the report said, runs all the way to Astara, a city adjacent to Iran’s northern border with Azerbaijan. “The level of impact was very high because these are two significant pipelines going south to north,” said Homayoun Falakshahi, a senior energy analyst at Kpler, was quoted by NYT as saying. “We have never seen anything like this in scale and scope.” “This shows that the covert networks operating in Iran have expanded their target list and advanced beyond just military and nuclear sites,” security analyst Shahin Modarres was quoted as saying. “It’s a major challenge and reputation blow for Iran’s intelligence and security agencies.” ...قراءة المزيد

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